Japanese has several expressions that can all be translated as "it seems like," but they differ completely in certainty level and information source.
The Rain Test: Which sentence means rain is most likely?
| # | Japanese | Information Source | Certainty |
|---|---|---|---|
| ① | 雨が降りそうだ | Eyes (the sky is getting dark) | ★★★★★ |
| ② | 雨が降るそうだ | Ears (hearsay) | ★★★★ |
| ③ | 雨が降るらしい | Evidence-based inference | ★★★★ |
| ④ | 雨が降るようだ | Personal feeling | ★★★ |
| ⑤ | 雨が降るだろう | Conjecture (probably) | ★★ |
Rain is most likely in ①. Why?
- 降りそうだ (appearance) = You see the sky turning dark, the wind picking up, and feel a chill → it's about to rain.
- 降るそうだ (hearsay) = The news says it will rain.
- 降るらしい = You saw the weather forecast, or someone mentioned it will rain.
- 降るようだ = It's been raining a lot lately, and you have a feeling it will continue.
- だろう = Your own guess, hoping the listener agrees.
Core Differences Among the Three
| そうだ (appearance) | ようだ | らしい | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Information source | What you see | Your own feeling/intuition | External evidence |
| Key nuance | It looks like; about to | It seems like (personal feeling) | It seems like (evidence-based) |
| Accuracy | High (seeing is believing) | Medium (personal feeling) | Fairly high (has an information source) |
Practical Comparison: Three Ways to Say "Got Drunk"
| Scenario | Expression | Japanese |
|---|---|---|
| Drank a lot, about to get drunk | Appearance そうだ | 酔いそうだ |
| Walking unsteadily, feel like you're drunk | ようだ | 酔ったようだ |
| A coworker told you they drank a lot last night | らしい | 酔ったらしい |
-
お酒を飲みすぎて、酔いそうだ。 → I drank too much; I'm about to get drunk. (It's about to happen; not drunk yet.)
-
前の人がよく見えない。酔ったようだ。 → I can't see the person in front of me clearly. I think I'm drunk. (Your own physical sensation.)
-
同僚に聞いたら、昨日酔ったらしい。 → I asked a coworker, and apparently they got drunk yesterday. (The coworker told me.)
ようだ vs らしい: The Most Confusing Pair
| ようだ | らしい | |
|---|---|---|
| Basis of judgment | Your own feeling/experience | External information/evidence |
| Example | I feel like I might have a cold | I heard class might be canceled |
| Compared to hearsay そうだ | Not similar | Very similar |
Key point: らしい is actually closer to hearsay そうだ (both are based on external information), except らしい adds a layer of "my own judgment." ようだ, on the other hand, is entirely based on personal feeling.
-
部長は出張したようだ。 → I think the boss went on a business trip. (He often travels, and I haven't seen him around for a few days -- my experience tells me so.)
-
部長は出張したらしい。 → It seems the boss went on a business trip. (I heard the boss mention it before, or I saw the travel schedule.)
A Quick Decision Method
Ask yourself: Where did this "seems like" come from?
- From your eyes → そうだ (appearance)
- From your intuition/experience → ようだ
- From an external source → らしい
- From someone telling you → そうだ (hearsay)
Self-Test
Q1. The sky has gotten dark. You say to a friend, "It looks like it's going to rain." Which one do you use?
Show answer
降りそうだ. You see the sky darkening with your own eyes = appearance そうだ.
Q2. A coworker tells you the boss went on a business trip, and you relay this to someone else. Which one do you use?
A. 出張したようだ B. 出張したらしい C. 出張したそうだ
Show answer
B or C are both acceptable. B (らしい) = the coworker said so + your own judgment. C (hearsay そうだ) = purely relaying what you heard. A (ようだ) doesn't quite fit -- you have a clear information source (the coworker told you), so it's not just a personal feeling.
Q3. After taking medicine, you feel your body getting better. ようだ or らしい?
Show answer
ようだ. This is your own physical sensation. If you read about it on the medicine label or heard it from a friend, then you'd use らしい.
Summary
- そうだ (appearance) = based on what you see, highest certainty
- ようだ = based on your own feeling/intuition
- らしい = evidence-based inference, close to hearsay そうだ
- Decision method: Where does the information come from? Eyes → そうだ, intuition → ようだ, external source → らしい
- Certainty ranking: 降りそうだ > 降るらしい ≈ 降るそうだ > 降るようだ > だろう